The hottest toilet paper crisis the three giants o

Toilet paper crisis! The "big three" of household paper announced a high price rise. The pulp price has been transmitted to the downstream. Will it rise in the future

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core tip: Recently, the price fluctuation of household paper has attracted market attention. Since this week, Weida paper and Zhongshun jierou, giants of the household paper industry, have issued a notice of price increase from April 1. In addition, in early March, the price fluctuation of household paper has attracted market attention recently. Since this week, Vida paper and Zhongshun jierou, giants of the household paper industry, have issued a notice of price increase from April 1. Together with the letter of price increase issued by golden red leaf paper in early March, three of the household paper "top 4" have made clear their intention of price increase in the near future

Vida paper said that due to the recent rising price of raw materials, the production cost has increased sharply. In order to ensure the healthy and steady development of the company and continue to provide high-quality sanitary products and services for everyone, the company unanimously decided to carry out the first round of price adjustment for some products of Vida brand from April 1, 2021

Zhongshun jierou said that recently, due to the continuous rise in the price of raw materials, the company's production costs and operating costs have been increasing. In order to ensure that the company continues to provide customers with stable and high-quality products and services, the company decided that it plans to significantly adjust the price of Zhongshun jierou's household paper products on April 1

golden leaf paper Guangzhou Branch said that from March 1, the prices of SKUs sold by Qingfeng will be gradually adjusted in 2019, except for a few imported SKUs. Some SKUs will be increased by about 5% in March, and some SKUs will be increased by about 3% - 5% in April

if these leading enterprises can implement the price increase, the price will soon be transmitted to end consumers through supermarkets, e-commerce and other channels

since hitting a record high on March 1, pulp futures have begun to consolidate at a high level for nearly a month. Is the rise in the price of household paper related to the high pulp price

in addition, it is reported that the supply of wusiqi pulp plant was halved due to unscheduled maintenance. In April, silver star and star could not supply long-term cooperative customers due to production problems in the pulp plant and aging tests. Will this aggravate the tension on the domestic supply side and become the next round of sharp rise in plasma prices? Many local governments will promote the lithium battery industry as the development focus? Where will the future pulp price go

household paper needs to increase its price to improve its profit margin

Gao Ning, an analyst at Zhaojin futures, told futures that previously, the price increase of household paper was significantly lower than that of white cardboard and cultural paper. According to rough calculation, the gross profit margin of household paper was more than -10%, while the gross profit margin of white cardboard was more than 30%, and the gross profit margins of double glue and coated paper of cultural paper were 8% and 14% respectively. Therefore, the rise in the price of household paper is more due to the increase in the cost of broad-leaved pulp and coniferous pulp, resulting in a negative profit margin, which needs to be raised to alleviate the contradiction of negative profits

Zheng Wei, an analyst at CCB futures, agreed with this: "the current demand logic has switched from focusing on long-term demand topics to the downstream traditional peak season logic, but the downstream transmission is still not smooth. The intention of cultural paper and white cardboard paper enterprises to raise prices is still there, and terminal orders are mostly based on just needed replenishment; the profits of household paper enterprises are under pressure, Baoding household paper factory issued a shutdown and overhaul plan, and large-scale paper enterprises raised the terminal supply price."

will pulp futures remain strong in the near future

referring to the high consolidation of pulp futures in recent one month, Gao Ning said that the core problem is that after the continuous rise in the early stage, the pulp price has reached a historical high range, and the external quotation has been implemented, and the price rise of superimposed downstream paper is also in the implementation stage. The market is in a period of positive digestion, the situation of tight supply of fundamentals has not changed, and there is no clear signal of trend change for pulp

"In terms of supply, the supply problems of foreign pulp mills will continue to disturb the pulp supply, especially the supply of coniferous pulp. From the perspective of capacity deployment, it is expected that the growth rate of global broad-leaved pulp supply will be about 3% and 5% respectively in 2021 and 2022, and the growth rate of coniferous pulp supply will be about 0% and 2% respectively. In 2021, there will be 1.3 million tons of broad-leaved pulp capacity deployment, and only 130000 tons of coniferous pulp capacity deployment, so the overall supply of coniferous pulp is insufficient. From the import volume Look, the customs data show that from January to February 2021, the cumulative import of needle pulp was 1.4325 million tons, an increase of 0.1% year-on-year. Therefore, it is difficult to import large quantities of needle pulp in March and April, so the problem of tight supply will continue to support the pulp price. " Gao Ning said

looking forward to the future, Zheng Wei said that in the second quarter, macro market fluctuations are expected to further intensify. In terms of fundamentals, the intention of paper enterprises to support prices still exists, but the downstream transmission is still not smooth. The news of production reduction at the supply side continues, but the pressure of broad-leaved supply is still there. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate at a high level

Gao Ning believes that the current price of near end coniferous pulp is difficult to fall, and the 2105 contract of pulp futures in recent months has a strong support of 7000/ton. However, in the long run, the long and short positions of coniferous pulp are quite different. There are two main reasons: first, whether the arrival tension of coniferous pulp in the second half of the year will be alleviated and whether the port inventory will accumulate again are unknown. At the same time, from the demand side, June to August is the off-season for the demand of household paper, and there is a situation of oversupply of household paper, and after the price increases of white cardboard and cultural paper are digested, There are no more demand growth points to reduce the driving force of price rise in the far month; Second, as a variety priced by the United States, the strength of the United States will put pressure on its pricing in the United States. Therefore, the rise of the United States Index in the future will exert greater pressure on the future price of pulp futures. On the whole, the near end price support of pulp is strong, but the increase range needs to be treated with caution, and the corresponding long month short hedging can be used

the Research Report of Zheshang Securities pointed out that the expected high level of pulp price oscillates, and Wenhua paper is still expected to rise. Pulp prices are supported at the current position. Except for some large factories, the inventory of small factories is generally low; Overseas suppliers establish certain inventories in China bonded warehouses to respond to downstream demand, and a small increase in port inventories is normal. Considering the price hikes of major pulp mills around the world and the tight balance between supply and demand, it is expected that the landing probability of pulp price hikes in April is still large

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